Economist and trader Alex Krüger on Friday laid out his price predictions for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) based on the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome, with a strong focus on the immediate impacts of either candidate’s win.
What Happened: The trader asserted in a thread on X that the apex crypto could surge to $90,000 by year-end in case of a Trump win, with a 55% probability assigned to this outcome.
In contrast, a Kamala Harris victory would likely keep Bitcoin at around $65,000, with a probability of 45%.
The weighted average of these projections puts Bitcoin at approximately $79,000, highlighting the substantial effect that the election could have on the cryptocurrency market.
Krüger emphasized that a Trump win would likely result in a sharp, rapid rise in Bitcoin's price, driven by expectations of pro-crypto policies and greater regulatory clarity under a GOP administration.
"Markets rarely wait for laggards on binary events not largely front-run," he stated, underlining his view that any positive market response to a Trump victory would be immediate.
The economist also outlined a slightly more nuanced trajectory for a Harris win, predicting that Bitcoin's price could initially dip before recovering, as her administration would be perceived as a continuation of the current regulatory environment.
He also suggested that if there's a “Blue sweep” (a Democratic victory in both the presidency and Congress), it could negatively impact equities, which he expects would, in turn, drag down Bitcoin.
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Krüger noted that Bitcoin’s price movements remain strongly correlated with equity markets, which he remains bullish on, barring a full Democratic sweep.
He believes that a Trump win would support equities due to expectations of increased government spending and pro-business policies, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin.
He also shared his position for election night, stating that he plans to go into the night "very long spot, with no leverage, mostly allocated to Bitcoin and Nvidia."
Krüger's analysis aligns with the betting markets, where Trump's probabilities currently range from 57% to 62.6%, indicating that a GOP victory isn't fully priced in.
This uncertain landscape, he says, is typical for elections, reinforcing his view that Bitcoin will not see a “sell the news” scenario post-election, regardless of the outcome.
What’s Next: These election-driven projections for Bitcoin and equities add another layer of significance to Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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