Amazon’s 11th Prime Day event kicks off on July 8 and extends for 4 days, double last year’s 2-day event, but will offer early access promotions like the previous year.
Prime Day will be held in 26 countries, including six that start later this summer (likely for better timing).
Bank of America Securities analyst Justin Post maintained a Buy rating on Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) with a price forecast of $248 on Tuesday.
The analyst said the event offers millions of deals on 35+ categories spanning electronics, fashion, and personal care, as well as savings on Amazon’s less penetrated categories like grocery, gasoline, and travel.
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Amazon positioned AI as a key savings tool in its latest Prime release, aligning with Post’s view that AI boosts retail efficiency and transparency.
Post said U.S. shoppers can now use Alexa+ to track price drops, get personalized deals, and receive AI-powered recommendations via Rufus and Shopping Guides.
The analyst predicts that Prime Day will extend twice as long this year and will, therefore, impact year-over-year (Y/Y) trends.
For the 4-day event, he projected 55% Y/Y first-party growth to $11.5 billion and 67% Y/Y third-party growth to $10.0 billion. Post estimated Prime Day could generate $21.4 billion in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), growing approximately 60% Y/Y.
The analyst’s estimate implied $5.4 billion in GMV daily, down 20% Y/Y, which is reasonable given less urgency around each day.
Based on his projection for $208 billion in total third-quarter GMV, he estimated Prime Day(s) could represent 10.3% of GMV for the quarter (higher than 7.0% last year).
Despite competition from retailers like Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT), and Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE:BBY), Post expects the event to remain a positive driver for Amazon branding and Prime sign-up/retention.
Extending the savings window suggests that Amazon has greater retail logistics capacity to offer promotions, and that inventory availability is not a constraint, despite tariff concerns, as per the analyst.
Price Action: AMZN stock is down 0.28% at $218.76 at the last check on Tuesday.
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