Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) has gone from being an AI crown jewel to a geopolitical chess piece. And, it looks like Wall Street just got a front-row seat to a high-stakes poker game between Washington and Beijing.

After weeks of tension, the first real blow in the U.S.-China tech trade war has landed: the White House is blocking Nvidia's H20 chip sales to China. "This week were the first shots fired in the trade war in the tech world," said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

With 145% reciprocal tariffs in play, and tech still awaiting Section 232 hits – Nvidia is now "caught in the eye of this Category 5 storm," said Ives. While the financial damage may be manageable for now, the strategic signal is deafening. America's most prized chipmaker just got walled off from the world's second-largest economy. "Nvidia is one of the most important pieces in this chess game with China…and restricting its H20 chips is an important move that will clearly spark more actions from Beijing."

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Meanwhile, CEO Jensen Huang is reportedly in China – an eyebrow-raising detail amid rising tensions. As Ives puts it, "the Street waits for the next poker move."

While Nvidia's dominance in AI remains unchallenged, the short-term turbulence is real. The market is already "baking in a 7%-10% (or more) cut to 2025 numbers across the board," Ives says. The upcoming June quarter? A mulligan, with "minimal/no guidance expected during this earnings season."

Adding fuel to the fire: Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD) and others are now seeing similar restrictions, a trend that's been brewing since the Biden administration but is now front and center in Trump's trade war redux. Ives doesn't mince words: "The Trump Administration knows there is one chip and company fueling the AI Revolution and it's Nvidia… and put a ';Do Not Enter' sign in front of China."

Nvidia remains the ace in America's AI hand – but right now, it's being played in a global poker game, not an earnings report.

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